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Timeline

AI Timeline, 1676–2024: From the Chain Rule to ChatGPT

The mathematics was ready long before the machines were

Timelines of artificial intelligence usually begin with the Dartmouth workshop of 1956. But the parts of the calculation today's AI uses to learn — measure the error, then step downhill a little at a time — were in place before any computer existed: the chain rule in 1676, least squares in 1805, gradient descent in 1847. What was missing was enough computing power and data to run them. This timeline puts the ideas that came from mathematics, neuroscience and physics along the top of the axis, and the things that actually ran along the bottom — 51 entries, from Leibniz in 1676 to the Nobel Prizes awarded for neural-network research in 2024.

Updated 2026-10-15/51 entries

TheoryDiscoveryMilestoneDeployment

Dashed borders and hollow dots mark projected, not-yet-achieved items. “Unverified” marks entries not yet confirmed against a primary source.

1676–1925The Mathematics Arrives First
1676
Theory

The chain rule — how to trace influence through nested calculations

While building his calculus, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz arrived at a rule for the case where one quantity affects a second, which in turn affects a third: the overall rate of change is the product of the rates at each stage. This is what is now called the chain rule. A neural network is a stack of simple calculations nested many layers deep, so how much each connection is to blame for an error at the output can be found by applying this rule backwards from the output. That procedure came to be called backpropagation some 290 years later (see 1970 and 1986).

  • Until it was used to train neural networks ~290 years

People and institutions: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz

NoteThe date 1676 follows Schmidhuber's survey (2022), which cites J. M. Child's English translation (1920). Leibniz published his calculus in 1684, and the chain rule took its textbook form later still. The manuscript itself has not been consulted.

1763
Theory

Reasoning backwards from results to causes — Bayes's essay

After the clergyman Thomas Bayes died, his friend Richard Price sent a manuscript he had left to the Royal Society. It tackles this problem: given how many times an event has and has not happened, how probable is it that the event is inherently likely? Instead of calculating effects from causes, it treated reasoning from effects back to causes as a matter of numbers for the first time. The idea of revising an estimate each time new data arrives became one of the foundations of machine learning as a whole.

People and institutions: Thomas Bayes / Richard Price

NoteThe general form now taught as Bayes' theorem was worked out independently by Pierre-Simon Laplace from 1774 onward.

1805
Theory

Least squares — minimise the sum of squared misses

In an appendix to a book on finding the orbits of comets, Adrien-Marie Legendre set out a method: square the gap between each observation and what the formula predicts, add the squares up, and choose the formula's coefficients so that the total is as small as possible. Observations always contain error, so no formula passes through every point. The idea is to boil down how far off you are to a single number and make it as small as you can. That pattern — turn the miss into a number, then shrink it — is exactly how machine-learning models are trained today. Fitting a straight line this way has the same form as a neural network with a single layer.

People and institutions: Adrien-Marie Legendre / Carl Friedrich Gauss

NoteIn his 1809 book Carl Friedrich Gauss stated that he had been using the method since 1795, and a priority dispute followed. Legendre published first.

1847
Theory

Gradient descent — take small steps down the steepest slope

To solve the simultaneous equations that arise in computing the orbits of heavenly bodies, Augustin-Louis Cauchy published a note just three pages long. Replace the equations with a single quantity that is smaller the closer you are to the answer; from wherever you stand, move a little in the direction in which it falls fastest; repeat, and you approach the bottom of the valley. Cauchy himself did not prove that the procedure always arrives at the answer. Even so, treating the error as a slope and walking down it is exactly how neural networks are trained today.

  • Length of the original note 3 pages

People and institutions: Augustin-Louis Cauchy

NoteThe original is Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences 25, 536–538 (1847). The source cited here is Lemaréchal's study of it.

1888
Discovery

The brain is made of separate cells that connect — the neuron doctrine

Most scientists of the day thought the nerves of the brain formed one continuous net. Using a staining method devised by the Italian Camillo Golgi, the Spaniard Santiago Ramón y Cajal examined tissue such as the cerebellum of birds and reported that nerve cells are separate units that merely touch across a gap. The two shared the Nobel Prize in 1906, yet Golgi was still defending the net in his Nobel lecture. Without this picture of the brain as unit cells plus the connections between them, the idea of treating cells as components and wiring them into circuits could not have arisen.

People and institutions: Santiago Ramón y Cajal / Camillo Golgi

NoteCajal's 1888 reports appeared in a Spanish journal he published himself; the source cited here is a review that reconstructs the history.

1913Jan 1913
Theory

Counting 20,000 letters of Pushkin — predicting what comes next from what came before

The Russian mathematician Andrey Markov took the first 20,000 letters of Pushkin's verse novel Eugene Onegin, sorted them into vowels and consonants, and counted how sharply the chance of a vowel depends on whether the previous letter was a vowel or a consonant. It was a worked example of what is now called a Markov chain: a mathematics of sequences in which each event is not independent but depends on the state just before it. It was also the first time a text was treated as a problem of predicting, as a probability, what comes next from what came before. Today's language models are descendants that widen the view from one preceding letter to thousands of words or more.

  • Letters counted 20,000

People and institutions: Andrey Markov (Андрей Марков)

NoteThe source is an English translation of the 1913 paper.

1925
Theory

A row of tiny magnets pointing up or down — an equation that later became a model of memory

To explain why iron becomes magnetic, Ernst Ising solved a model in which tiny magnets, each able to point only up or down, sit in a row and try to line up with their neighbours. The result was a disappointment — a single row never becomes a magnet — and Ising left the subject. Yet the model became a standard tool for studying how simple units that influence one another behave as a whole. Fifty-seven years later it was shown that if the units are read as nerve cells, it becomes a model of memory (see 1982).

  • Until Hopfield's network 57 years

People and institutions: Ernst Ising / Wilhelm Lenz

NoteThe model itself was proposed in 1920 by Ising's supervisor Wilhelm Lenz, and physicists also call it the Lenz–Ising model.

1936–1959Computation Meets the Neuron, and the Field Gets a Name
1936
Theory

What does it mean to compute? — defining one machine that can compute anything

Alan Turing imagined a simple abstract machine that does nothing but write and erase symbols on a paper tape, and argued that anything a person can calculate by following a procedure can be calculated by such a machine. He went on to show that a single universal machine suffices: given a description of any other machine, it can imitate it. This is the idea behind today's computers, which become anything you like when the program is changed. The premise of artificial intelligence — that if intelligence is some kind of computation, a machine can in principle do it — rests on this paper.

People and institutions: Alan Turing

NoteThe paper was received and read in 1936; the volume it appears in was published in 1937.

1943
Theory

Writing the nerve cell as a component of logic

The neurophysiologist Warren McCulloch and the young logician Walter Pitts described the nerve cell as a simple element: it fires if the sum of the signals coming in exceeds a threshold, and stays silent if not. They then showed that by combining such elements you can realise any logic that can be written with and, or and not. It was the first paper to let the workings of the brain and the calculations of logic be discussed in the same language. But the wiring in their model is set by hand; there is as yet no mechanism for learning from experience.

People and institutions: Warren McCulloch / Walter Pitts

1948
Theory

Measuring information with numbers — and producing English-like text from probabilities alone

Claude Shannon of Bell Laboratories defined the amount of information in a message by a formula in probabilities: how hard it is to predict. The paper also contains an experiment. He tabulated how likely each English letter or word is to follow the few before it, then strung symbols together as if drawing lots according to those odds; the wider the window, the more English-like the output became. In 1951 he measured how predictable English is by having people guess the next letter. The quantity that today's language models are trained to make small belongs to the family he defined here.

People and institutions: Claude Shannon / Bell Telephone Laboratories

1949
Theory

Learning is a change in the strength of connections — Hebb's hypothesis

In his book The Organization of Behavior, the Canadian psychologist Donald Hebb proposed that when one nerve cell repeatedly makes another fire, the connection between the two grows stronger. Memory and learning, on this view, are stored not in the cells themselves but in the strength of the links between them. At the time it was a guess with no means of testing it; something close to it was later found in real brains. The starting point for artificial neural networks — that to learn is to change the numbers standing for connection strengths — is here.

People and institutions: Donald O. Hebb

NoteThe source is a reissue of the 1949 original (New York: Wiley).

1950Oct 1950
Theory

Replacing 'Can machines think?' with a question that can be tested

Sidestepping arguments about what the word think means, Turing proposed a test: if, in an exchange carried on in writing alone, a machine cannot be told apart from a person, let us grant that it thinks. Most of the paper is spent answering, one by one, the objections that a machine could never do this. Near the end he also suggests that rather than building an adult mind outright, one might build a machine that corresponds to a child's mind and educate it. It foreshadowed what is now the mainstream approach: not writing rules in, but making a machine clever by having it learn.

People and institutions: Alan Turing

1951
Theory

Even with noisy measurements, you arrive if you keep shortening your step

The statisticians Herbert Robbins and Sutton Monro proved that even when every measurement is contaminated by error, you can correct your estimate a little after each one, make the corrections smaller as you go, and the estimate will close in on the right value. Training today's AI does not look at an enormous dataset all at once; it repeatedly pulls out a small sample and adjusts a little. Because only a sample is seen, each step points in a slightly wrong direction, yet overall the process heads the right way. This paper supplied the mathematical backing for that method, known as stochastic gradient descent.

People and institutions: Herbert Robbins / Sutton Monro

1956
Milestone

The Dartmouth workshop — the field is named 'artificial intelligence'

In a proposal to the Rockefeller Foundation, John McCarthy, Marvin Minsky, Nathaniel Rochester and Claude Shannon set out a conjecture: that learning and every other aspect of intelligence can be described so precisely that a machine can be made to simulate it. Ten people working together for two months, they wrote, could make a significant advance. The phrase used in that proposal, artificial intelligence, became the name of the field. The forecast was far too optimistic, but many of the problems the proposal listed — language, abstraction, self-improvement, networks of neurons — are still at the centre of research.

  • Scale the proposal envisaged 10 people for 2 months

People and institutions: John McCarthy / Marvin Minsky / Nathaniel Rochester / Claude Shannon

NoteThe proposal is dated 31 August 1955; the workshop took place in the summer of 1956.

1958
Theory

The perceptron — a machine that adjusts its connections every time it is wrong

Frank Rosenblatt, a psychologist at the Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory, combined the elements of McCulloch and Pitts with Hebb's idea of changing connection strengths to produce a model that learns from experience. Multiply the inputs by weights and add them up; if the answer is wrong, nudge the weights. Repeat, and the system comes to tell shapes apart without anyone giving it rules. But only the one layer of weights feeding the output could be learned; nobody knew how to adjust the layers in between. That weakness was attacked hard about ten years later (see 1969).

People and institutions: Frank Rosenblatt / Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory

1959
Discovery

The cells that see respond to the tilt of a line

David Hubel and Torsten Wiesel pushed fine electrodes into the visual part of a cat's brain and recorded what each cell responded to. The cells cared little for spots of light; they fired strongly for a line or an edge at a particular tilt in a particular place. Together with their later work, this showed that vision is processed in stages, from cells that pick up simple features to more complex cells that combine them. The design of image recognition — building small features up through a stack of layers — is modelled on this discovery (see 1980).

People and institutions: David Hubel / Torsten Wiesel

1959Jul 1959
Milestone

A checkers program that came to beat the man who wrote it

Arthur Samuel of IBM had a program that played the board game checkers learn from its own games. It carried a formula that scored how good a position was; when the score disagreed with what looking a few moves ahead revealed, the formula was adjusted. Samuel reported that a computer can be programmed so that it learns to play a better game than the person who wrote the program. This is also the paper that popularised the term machine learning. The idea of correcting an earlier judgement using what a look ahead reveals was later worked up into the theory of reinforcement learning (see 1988).

People and institutions: Arthur Samuel / IBM

1966–1980Hopes Deflate While the Tools Quietly Accumulate
1966Jan 1966
Milestone

ELIZA — a conversation that works although nothing is understood

Joseph Weizenbaum of MIT wrote a program that merely looks for set phrases in what is typed and replies by slotting them into prepared templates. Cast as a listener who turns your words back into questions, it keeps a plausible conversation going. The program handles nothing of what the words mean. The point Weizenbaum stressed in the paper was that once the workings are explained, the magic crumbles. The question of whether a machine that talks fluently understands anything runs from here to the present day.

People and institutions: Joseph Weizenbaum / MIT

1967
Theory

The layers in between can be learned by going downhill too — Shun'ichi Amari's theory

Shun'ichi Amari, then at Kyushu University, set out a general theory for training a pattern-classifying machine by stochastic gradient descent — adjusting the weights a little, each time one piece of data is seen, in the direction that reduces the error. The method also applies when there are layers between input and output. In principle, then, the perceptron's supposed weakness — how to adjust the layers in between — already had an answer. But the computers of the day could not run large experiments, the work stayed almost unknown in the English-speaking world, and the same idea was rediscovered about twenty years later (see 1986).

People and institutions: Shun'ichi Amari (甘利俊一)

NoteOn learning in several layers, Alexey Ivakhnenko and colleagues in the Soviet Union (now Ukraine) had from 1965 published a different method (GMDH) that builds up layers one at a time. The view that this paper is the first to train multiple layers by stochastic gradient descent rests mainly on Schmidhuber's survey.

1969
Theory

Perceptrons — a proof that some problems cannot be solved with one layer

Marvin Minsky and Seymour Papert showed mathematically that a perceptron with only one learnable layer cannot, in principle, solve certain problems. The famous example is a simple decision: output 1 when exactly one of two inputs is 1. It was understood that stacking layers would solve it, but no practical way of training stacked layers was widely known. The book cooled expectations for neural networks and is regarded as one reason research interest and money shifted to approaches based on symbols and rules.

People and institutions: Marvin Minsky / Seymour Papert

NoteThe source is the 2017 reissue of the 1969 original (MIT Press).

1970
Theory

A method for studying rounding error turned out to be backpropagation itself

A Finnish student, Seppo Linnainmaa, wrote a master's thesis on how to find out how much the small rounding errors made along the way in a long calculation affect the final answer. Break the calculation into small steps, apply the chain rule from the last step back to the first, and the influence of every step falls out of a single backward pass. Neural networks are nowhere mentioned. Yet this is the same calculation that is now called backpropagation. Born as a tool for numerical computing, it was put to work as a way of learning more than a decade later.

People and institutions: Seppo Linnainmaa

NoteThe 1970 work is a master's thesis at the University of Helsinki, in Finnish; its content was published in English in 1976. Applying the same calculation to neural networks was proposed by Paul Werbos in his 1974 doctoral thesis and published in 1982. There are several lines of priority, which Griewank's essay sorts out.

1973
Milestone

The Lighthill report — 'the promised results have not appeared'

Britain's Science Research Council asked the applied mathematician James Lighthill to assess the state of artificial intelligence research. His verdict was severe: in no part of the field had discoveries produced the major impact that had been promised. The reason he gave was the combinatorial explosion — the number of cases to examine becomes unmanageable as soon as a problem grows a little. Methods that worked on small toy problems did not work at real-world size. After the report, research funding for AI in Britain was cut back sharply, and it became the emblematic document of the first AI winter.

People and institutions: James Lighthill / Science Research Council

1980
Theory

The neocognitron — a layered network that recognises a pattern even when it shifts

Kunihiko Fukushima of NHK's Broadcasting Science Research Laboratories built a network that alternates two kinds of layer, modelled on the visual cells Hubel and Wiesel had found. One kind picks up patterns within a small patch; the other absorbs small shifts in position. Stack several of these and a character is recognised as the same character even if it is displaced or distorted. Reusing the same small pattern detector across the whole picture is the prototype of the convolutional neural networks used for image recognition today. What it lacked was a way to train the whole thing together (see 1989).

People and institutions: Kunihiko Fukushima (福島邦彦) / NHK Broadcasting Science Research Laboratories

NoteA Japanese-language paper appeared in 1979 in the Transactions of the IECE of Japan; the English paper followed in 1980.

1982–1997Rewired from Physics and Statistics
1982
Theory

A network that holds memories as valleys — a physicist's way of seeing it

The physicist John Hopfield showed that for a collection of simple interconnected units one can define an energy of the same form as in the model of magnets (see 1925). Set the connection strengths so that the patterns to be remembered sit at the bottoms of valleys in that energy, and when a damaged or noisy input is supplied, the state rolls downhill and settles in the nearest valley. That is what memory does: recall the whole from a partial cue. The paper brought statistical physicists, and their tools, flooding into neural-network research.

People and institutions: John Hopfield

NoteThat a network of this type acquires memories through learning had been discussed by Shun'ichi Amari in 1972.

1982
Deployment

Writing an expert's knowledge in as rules — expert systems go into service

John McDermott of Carnegie Mellon University built R1 (later XCON) for the computer maker Digital Equipment Corporation: a program that works out the configuration of equipment to match an order. The judgement of experienced engineers was written in as a large number of if-this-then-that rules, which the program applies in turn. It does not learn, but it showed that with a narrow enough scope such a system could do real work, and it became the standard example of the second AI boom of the 1980s. The approach also carried a weakness: the more rules there are, the harder they are to maintain.

People and institutions: John McDermott / Carnegie Mellon University / Digital Equipment Corporation

1985
Theory

The Boltzmann machine — teaching hidden units the features of the data

David Ackley, Geoffrey Hinton and Terrence Sejnowski changed the units of Hopfield's network into ones that behave probabilistically, and derived a learning rule using the formulas of statistical mechanics. The crucial move was to include hidden units, connected directly to neither input nor output. As learning proceeds, the hidden units come to represent regularities lurking in the data without being told what to look for. It was far too slow to be practical at the time, but the idea of letting hidden layers find features for themselves led to the relaunch of deep learning in 2006.

People and institutions: David Ackley / Geoffrey Hinton / Terrence Sejnowski

1986Oct 1986
Theory

Backpropagation spreads — the layers in between start building features of their own

In a four-page paper, David Rumelhart, Geoffrey Hinton and Ronald Williams showed how to send the error at the output back towards the input by the chain rule, adjusting every weight including those of the layers in between. What caught attention was the experimental result: the units in the middle layers came to represent features useful for the task without anyone telling them to. Problems said to be unsolvable with one layer were solved. The paper revived interest in neural networks, but a barrier remained for the next twenty years: learning went badly once the layers got deep.

People and institutions: David Rumelhart / Geoffrey Hinton / Ronald Williams

NoteThe procedure itself was not a new discovery. Reverse-mode differentiation is due to Linnainmaa (1970), its application to neural networks to Werbos (doctoral thesis, 1974), and a theory of multilayer learning to Amari (1967). This paper's contribution was to show by experiment that the layers in between build useful representations of their own, and to make that widely known.

1988
Theory

Learning without waiting for the outcome — using the gap between one prediction and the next

Richard Sutton showed as a matter of theory that learning need not wait for the final outcome: it can proceed from the disagreement between a prediction at one moment and the prediction one step later. Who wins a game is unknown until the end, but if the outlook changes after one move, that change is material for correcting the earlier outlook. It generalised what Samuel's checkers program (1959) had done by rule of thumb. It became the central method of reinforcement learning — learning by trial and error from rewards — and was later used in programs that play Go (see 2016).

People and institutions: Richard Sutton

NoteQ-learning, which also learns how to choose actions, was introduced by Christopher Watkins in his 1989 doctoral thesis and published with a convergence proof in 1992.

1989
Theory

One layer in between is enough to get as close as you like to any function

In 1989 George Cybenko, Kurt Hornik and colleagues, and Ken-ichi Funahashi of Toyohashi University of Technology each independently proved a theorem to the same effect: put one layer between input and output, give it enough units, and the network can imitate any continuous function as accurately as you wish. It is a guarantee that, in principle, nothing is beyond what a neural network can represent. But the theorem says nothing about how many units are needed, or whether learning will ever find the answer. Being able to represent something and being able to find it are different problems.

People and institutions: George Cybenko / Kurt Hornik / Maxwell Stinchcombe / Halbert White / Ken-ichi Funahashi (船橋賢一)

1989
Milestone

Reading handwritten ZIP codes — training a layered network end to end

Yann LeCun and colleagues at AT&T Bell Laboratories built a network that reads the digits of handwritten ZIP codes collected from US mail. Its structure — reusing the same small pattern detector across the whole image — is shared with Fukushima's neocognitron (1980); to that they added backpropagation, training everything from the first layer to the last together. What was new was that people did not design how features should be picked out; the network learned straight from the pixels. Networks of this family went into real use in the 1990s for tasks such as reading cheques, but there was neither the computing power nor the data to extend them to larger images.

People and institutions: Yann LeCun / AT&T Bell Laboratories

1995
Theory

Support-vector machines — a method guaranteed to find the best answer becomes the mainstream

Corinna Cortes and Vladimir Vapnik set out a method for drawing the boundary between two kinds of data so that its distance from the nearest points on either side is as large as possible. The problem can be written in a form with only one valley, so the calculation is certain to reach the best answer. Training a neural network involves many valleys, with no guarantee of where it will settle. Because the theory was clean and, with the amounts of data then available, the results were good, the leading role in machine learning passed to this approach from the late 1990s through the 2000s, and neural networks entered a second winter.

People and institutions: Corinna Cortes / Vladimir Vapnik / AT&T Bell Laboratories

1997May 1997
Milestone

Deep Blue — beating the world chess champion by search, not learning

IBM's Deep Blue won a six-game match against the world chess champion, Garry Kasparov. According to its developers' paper, it lined up 480 custom chess chips and examined roughly 100 to 200 million positions a second. Its strength came from searching enormous numbers of moves ahead and from a position-scoring formula tuned by people; learning from experience, in the way today's AI does, played only a very limited part. Winning by sheer computing power was not expected to work for Go, where the choice of moves is far wider, and cracking Go needed an entirely different approach (see 2016).

  • Positions searched 100–200 million per second
  • Custom chess chips 480

People and institutions: Murray Campbell / A. Joseph Hoane Jr. / Feng-hsiung Hsu / IBM

  • Deep Blue — Artif. Intell. 134(1–2), 57–83 (2002), M. Campbell, A. J. Hoane Jr. and F.-h. Hsu
1997Nov 1997
Theory

LSTM — carrying a clue from the distant past without losing it

Networks that handle ordered data such as text or speech had a problem: as the error is passed back through time the signal shrinks rapidly, so clues far apart cannot be learned. Sepp Hochreiter and Jürgen Schmidhuber avoided this by building into each unit a cell that can hold information unchanged, with gates that regulate what goes in and out. What to remember and what to forget is itself learned. It drew limited attention when published, but in the 2010s it became the workhorse of speech recognition and machine translation.

People and institutions: Sepp Hochreiter / Jürgen Schmidhuber

2003–2016Data and Compute Catch Up with the Old Equations
2003
Theory

Representing words as lists of numbers and having a network predict the next word

Until then, language models worked by counting how often each sequence of words had been seen. That approach is helpless with a sequence it has never met. Yoshua Bengio and colleagues represented each word as a list of a few dozen numbers, and trained that representation together with a network that computes the probability of the word that comes next. Words used in similar ways end up with similar lists, so the model can reason by analogy from similar sentences to ones it has never seen. The skeleton of today's language models — turn words into lists of numbers, and learn by predicting the next word — was all in place here.

People and institutions: Yoshua Bengio / Réjean Ducharme / Pascal Vincent / Christian Jauvin

2006Jul 2006
Theory

Preparing a deep network one layer at a time before training it

It was well known that a network with many stacked layers does not train well by backpropagation alone. Geoffrey Hinton and colleagues set out a two-stage approach: first prepare the layers one at a time, letting each grasp the features of the data without being given right answers (using a simplified version of the Boltzmann machine), and only then finish the whole network off with backpropagation. This showed that deep networks could reach genuinely useful performance, and research got moving again under the name deep learning. The preparation step itself was replaced by other tricks within a few years.

People and institutions: Geoffrey Hinton / Ruslan Salakhutdinov / Simon Osindero / Yee-Whye Teh

2009Jun 2009
Milestone

ImageNet — scaling up the data, not the method, by orders of magnitude

Research in image recognition at the time was mostly a contest between better methods. Fei-Fei Li and colleagues took the opposite view — that what was missing was data — and built a very large collection of photographs gathered from the web, with what each one shows checked by many human hands. When it was presented in 2009 it held about 3.2 million images in 5,247 categories. From the following year, an annual competition used the data to compare recognition accuracy. With results now comparable on common ground, it became clear which methods really worked, and this set the stage for the turning point three years later (see 2012).

  • Images at the time of the 2009 paper ~3.2 million
  • Categories 5,247

People and institutions: Jia Deng / Fei-Fei Li / Princeton University

2009Jun 2009
Milestone

A graphics chip built for games makes training tens of times faster

Training a neural network means repeating simple multiplications and additions an enormous number of times. Rajat Raina and colleagues at Stanford handed that work to GPUs — chips originally made to draw three-dimensional game scenes, which can run great numbers of the same kind of calculation side by side — and reported training up to about 70 times faster than on an ordinary processor. Training that had taken weeks would finish in about a day. Larger networks could now be tried on more data. This was a turning point that came not from mathematics or data but from the semiconductor side.

  • Speed-up in training up to ~70×

People and institutions: Rajat Raina / Anand Madhavan / Andrew Ng / Stanford University

2012
Milestone

AlexNet — the day the old equations finally had the data and the compute

Alex Krizhevsky, Ilya Sutskever and Geoffrey Hinton of the University of Toronto entered the ImageNet competition with a convolutional neural network many layers deep. The share of images for which the right answer was not among its top five guesses was 15.3 percent, far ahead of the runner-up's 26.2 percent. The architecture was an extension of the one from 1989, and the training was backpropagation with stochastic gradient descent. What had changed was more than a million images and computation on two GPUs. On seeing the result, image-recognition research moved to deep learning almost in unison.

  • Top-5 error rate 15.3% (runner-up 26.2%)
  • Parameters ~60 million

People and institutions: Alex Krizhevsky / Ilya Sutskever / Geoffrey Hinton / University of Toronto

NoteFirst presented at the NeurIPS conference (then called NIPS) in 2012; the source is the version reprinted in a journal in 2017.

2013Jan 2013
Discovery

The meanings of words show up as directions among lists of numbers

Tomas Mikolov and colleagues at Google took a simple task — predict a word in a sentence from the words around it, or the reverse — and made the method of turning words into lists of numbers fast enough to train on very large bodies of text. The resulting lists had an unexpected property. Take the list for king, subtract man and add woman, and you land close to queen. Nobody had taught the system any meanings, yet the relationships between words had been laid out as directions in the space of numbers. Structure of meaning, it turned out, arises simply from being made to solve a prediction task.

People and institutions: Tomas Mikolov / Kai Chen / Greg Corrado / Jeffrey Dean / Google

2014Sep 2014
Theory

Attention — choosing where to look in the source for each word of the translation

Neural machine translation at the time squeezed the source sentence into a single list of numbers of fixed length and produced the translation from that. With long sentences not everything fits, and quality fell. Dzmitry Bahdanau, Kyunghyun Cho and Yoshua Bengio added a mechanism that, each time a word of the translation is produced, computes on the spot how heavily to weigh each word of the source. Where to look is not taught by people but settled by learning. Quality held up much better on long sentences. Three years later this mechanism became the main component of the network itself (see 2017).

People and institutions: Dzmitry Bahdanau / Kyunghyun Cho / Yoshua Bengio

2015Mar 2015
Theory

Turn an image gradually into static and learn to run it backwards — the prototype of diffusion models

Taking their cue from how physics treats the process of things diffusing, Jascha Sohl-Dickstein and colleagues proposed a new way to build a generative model. First add a tiny amount of noise to an image over and over until nothing but static remains. Then have a network learn to retrace a single step of that process in reverse — to remove just a little of the noise. Once trained, it can make a new image by starting from static and stepping back one stage at a time. On publication it trailed other methods in image quality and attracted little notice, but it became the foundation of image generation from 2020 onward (see 2022).

People and institutions: Jascha Sohl-Dickstein / Eric Weiss / Niru Maheswaranathan / Surya Ganguli / Stanford University

2015Dec 2015
Theory

ResNet — shortcuts that skip layers take networks past a hundred layers

Deeper networks ought to perform better, but in practice it was known that beyond a certain depth performance got worse even on the training data. Kaiming He and colleagues at Microsoft Research Asia added shortcuts that carry the input straight past a few layers. Each layer then no longer has to construct an answer from scratch; it need only learn a correction to what came before. A 152-layer network trained stably, and won the ImageNet competition with an error rate of 3.57 percent. These shortcuts are found in almost every large network today.

  • Layers 152
  • Top-5 error rate 3.57%

People and institutions: Kaiming He (何恺明) / Xiangyu Zhang / Shaoqing Ren / Jian Sun / Microsoft Research Asia

NoteThe paper was posted in December 2015 and presented at a conference in 2016.

2016Jan 2016
Milestone

AlphaGo — combining search with an intuition acquired by learning

Go has too many possible moves for brute-force reading ahead to work as it did in chess. David Silver and colleagues at Google DeepMind prepared two deep networks that read the board as if it were an image. One suggests which moves are worth considering; the other estimates how likely a position is to be won. Both were trained on human game records and by reinforcement learning from games the program played against itself, and their judgements are used to narrow down what the search has to read. It was the first program to beat a professional player in an even game — a milestone that had been thought a decade away.

  • Match against the European champion 5–0

People and institutions: David Silver / Aja Huang (黃士傑) / Demis Hassabis / Google DeepMind

NoteWhat the paper reports is a 5–0 result against the European champion Fan Hui, 2 dan, in October 2015. The 4–1 win over Lee Sedol, 9 dan, one of the world's top players, came in March 2016, after publication, and is not covered by the cited paper.

2017–2024A Next-Word Predictor Starts Doing Everything
2017Jun 2017
Theory

The Transformer — stop reading in order and build with attention alone

Until then, networks that handled text processed words one at a time from the front. Because they could only move forward in sequence, it was hard to speed things up by running calculations side by side, and relationships between distant words were hard to capture. Ashish Vaswani and seven colleagues at Google removed the sequential part altogether and built the network from attention alone, computing all at once how strongly every word in a sentence relates to every other. It set a new record in translation quality and trained far faster. This structure, well suited to running in parallel on GPUs, made the later growth in scale possible.

People and institutions: Ashish Vaswani / Noam Shazeer / Niki Parmar / Jakob Uszkoreit / Llion Jones / Aidan Gomez / Łukasz Kaiser / Illia Polosukhin / Google

2018Oct 2018
Theory

Lay a foundation on vast amounts of text first, then adapt to the task

In 2018 the standard way of handling language changed. In June OpenAI announced a method (GPT) in which a Transformer first reads a large body of text with the task of predicting the next word and is then finished off for a particular task. In October Jacob Devlin and colleagues at Google, using a method (BERT) that hides words here and there in a sentence and has the model guess them from both sides, set new records on eleven tasks including question answering. What the two share is that general knowledge of language is learned first, from plain text to which nobody has attached right answers. The era of building from scratch for each task ended here.

People and institutions: Jacob Devlin / Ming-Wei Chang / Kenton Lee / Kristina Toutanova / Google / OpenAI

2020Mar 2020
Discovery

We can build it, but not say what it is doing inside — an attempt to read a network's internals

A neural network is produced by training, so even the people who made it do not know what calculations go on inside. Chris Olah and colleagues examined an image-recognition network unit by unit, as though under a microscope, and reported finding units that respond to curves, and pathways by which these combine into units that respond to wheels or dogs' heads. Their claim was that the inside can be read as meaningful features joined by circuits. Alongside research aimed at raising performance, research aimed at understanding what has been built grew from here into a field of its own.

People and institutions: Chris Olah / Nick Cammarata / Ludwig Schubert / Gabriel Goh / Michael Petrov / Shan Carter / OpenAI

2020May 2020
Milestone

Bigger means cleverer — doing a new task after being shown only a few examples

In January of that year Jared Kaplan and colleagues at OpenAI reported that the performance of language models keeps improving smoothly, along a simple rule, as the size of the model, the amount of data and the amount of computation are increased. GPT-3, announced in May, was scaled up accordingly to 175 billion parameters. Without being finished off for each task, it could manage a fair amount of translation, arithmetic and writing when simply given an instruction and a handful of examples as text. No new principle had been added; merely making the same mechanism larger changed the kinds of things it could do.

  • Parameters 175 billion

People and institutions: Tom Brown / Jared Kaplan / Sam McCandlish / Dario Amodei / OpenAI

2021Jul 2021
Milestone

AlphaFold — predicting the three-dimensional shape of a protein from its sequence

A protein is a chain of amino acids, and what it does is determined by how the chain folds into a three-dimensional shape. Predicting the shape from the sequence had been a hard problem in biology for half a century. John Jumper and colleagues at DeepMind had a network built on attention handle two things together: which pairs of amino acids have changed in step over the course of evolution, and the constraints of three-dimensional geometry. In a contest in which researchers worldwide submit predictions, it reached accuracy on a par with experiment in many cases. It is an example of AI, outside language and images, actually moving an unsolved problem in science.

  • Median backbone error 0.96 Å

People and institutions: John Jumper / Demis Hassabis / DeepMind

NoteThe cited paper reports the method used in the CASP14 prediction contest of 2020.

2022Jun 2022
Milestone

Pictures from words — diffusion models start running on ordinary computers

Diffusion models, proposed in 2015, came to produce better image quality than other methods after Jonathan Ho and colleagues tidied up how they are trained in 2020. The remaining problem was how heavy the computation was. Robin Rombach and colleagues at LMU Munich first compress an image into a small array of numbers and carry out the noise removal on the compressed side, greatly cutting the computation needed. A way of specifying the content in words is built in. An image-generation model based on this method was released the same year, and making pictures from words came within reach of people outside research laboratories.

People and institutions: Robin Rombach / Andreas Blattmann / Dominik Lorenz / Patrick Esser / Björn Ommer / Jonathan Ho / Ajay Jain / Pieter Abbeel

202230 Nov 2022
Deployment

ChatGPT — a language model is released in a form anyone can talk to

OpenAI tuned a large language model for dialogue and released it on the web in a form that anyone could address in ordinary writing. No new principle was involved. Inside is a Transformer trained to predict the next word — a combination of the parts traced through this timeline. What changed was the delivery. Language models, until then something specialists used by writing instructions, appeared before the general public as something that answers when asked. Its weakness — that it sometimes returns plausible answers that are not true — became widely known at the same time.

People and institutions: OpenAI

NoteBecause this entry concerns a product release, the source is the developer's own announcement.

2024Oct 2024
Milestone

Nobel Prizes in physics and chemistry for neural networks

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics went to John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks. The chemistry prize went to David Baker for computational protein design and to Demis Hassabis and John Jumper for protein structure prediction. The work honoured in physics was the memory network that came out of the model of magnets (1982) and the learning method built on the formulas of statistical mechanics (1985). Ninety-nine years after Ising's paper, tools borrowed from physics were counted as achievements of physics.

  • After Ising's paper 99 years

People and institutions: John Hopfield / Geoffrey Hinton / David Baker / Demis Hassabis / John Jumper / Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences